I HAVE a confession to make. A few months ago, I poured scorn on those who felt Forest could make the play offs. I'd done the maths and it seemed Forest would need 73 points to make the top-six. No chance.
I guess I was half right. We aren't going to make 73 points. We only have a chance of qualifying for the post-season because of some almighty choking by Crystal Palace and Leicester City.
Now Leicester visit on Saturday needing to do something they've not done since Billy Davies was just a wee bonny lad – they have to win a league game. They also have to hope Bolton don't beat Blackpool.
Forest probably need to win too as I can't see Blackpool winning at Bolton. Blackpool's players may already have half a mind on summering on the beach, and Bolton have won their last eight home games. A draw is possible.
So if Forest are to beat Leicester, what team should Billy name? I have had a look at the statistics for the 45 games played and come up with the team that is most likely to beat Leicester.
I'll explain the methodology. I have aggregated every point won by every Forest player while he was on the pitch through the season. For example – against Millwall Majewski got three points for the 1-0 while he was playing. McGugan only got a point for the 0-0 while he was on the pitch.
I've then divided all the points each player has won by the number of games (including as a sub) he has played.
Finally, I have excluded those players who haven't played over ten games or who are not now at the club, ruling out the likes of Jenas, Greening, Jara, Hutton and Camp.
So, based on statistics, here are the leading 11 players for Forest this season in order of success: Cox (1.68 points per game), Majewski, Darlow, McGugan, Ward, Blackstock, Collins, Cohen, Halford, Gillett, Harding.
In formation I make that: Darlow; Halford, Harding, Collins, Ward; Radi, Cohen, McGugan, Gillett; Blackstock, Cox.
The subs would be: Guedioura, Sharp, Lansbury, Reid, Ayala, Hutchinson and finally, scoring 0.78 points per game, Guy Moussi.
Looking at that starting XI my message to Billy Davies is clear… ignore statistics.
