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Garry Birtles: Why scoring an early goal could propel Nottingham Forest into the play-offs

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AMID the fierce, powder keg atmosphere of a local derby, Nottingham Forest fans were always going to have a big role to play this weekend.

And their positive backing can be a huge factor at the City Ground on Saturday afternoon.

But it is the mood of the Bolton fans that Forest's players need to influence the most.

In a world where text messaging, the internet and old fashioned radio provide a constant source of information, the Reds actually can, to some degree, have an impact what happens at the Reebok Stadium – and at Selhurst Park.

When Greg Halford headed home at Millwall, it was the first time Forest have scored inside 15 minutes in the Championship all season.

Never has their ability to repeat that feat been more important than now.

Because, if they can score an early goal against Leicester, news will filter through in a matter of seconds.

Within moments, somebody at the Reebok will hear the news – and the reaction of the Bolton fans will ensure that the players on the pitch know exactly what has happened too.

It will be the same story in London, where Palace still need to win to be absolutely certain of securing their own play-off place.

As high pressure situations go, the difference between the atmosphere at the Reebok, Selhurst Park and the City Ground will be negligible.

Bolton are in the driving seat. With a goal difference that is three goals superior to Forest's, they hold a significant advantage. They know that, if they win by a couple of goals, they are more or less in the play-offs.

But it is not an insurmountable gap for Forest.

And, if Bolton suddenly start to hear whispers that Forest have taken an early lead 90 miles or so to the south, it will only add to the pressure they are feeling. It will also set nerves jangling in south London.

Following 45 matches of the season, the balance of power in the play-off race will change on a minute-by-minute basis on Saturday afternoon.

It is about mental strength, it is about belief and focus.

But, what happens at the other ends of the motorway is not out of Forest's hands, because they can influence the mood in the north and south.

They genuinely can ensure that the sense of nervousness and trepidation is cranked right up in the Bolton and Palace camps.

Obviously the opposite is also true. Forest won't want to hear that Bolton have taken the advantage over Blackpool either, or that Palace are doing their job and putting Peterborough's Championship future in peril.

But we all want to see Forest get over the finishing line, following what has been a remarkable season.

And, while it may be too greedy of me, it would be fantastic to see Forest score a couple of early goals, to really make the panic set in among Dougie Freedman's side; to make Ian Holloway's stuttering Palace start to fear that they could go from automatic promotion contenders to missing out on the top six completely.

I am not saying Forest should be all gung ho about things; that they should tear onto Leicester with all guns blazing.

Billy Davies is a better manager than that. His sides have organisation and hard work at the core of their being and Saturday will be no different.

But, if Forest versus Leicester was a boxing match, I would expect it to be one fought out in the centre of the ring, with two big hitters going toe-to-toe.

There will be no dancing around, no trying to frustrate the opponent – because both sides need to win; Leicester need to land a knock-out blow every bit as much as Forest do.

Because don't forget, if Bolton do slip-up and lose to Blackpool, Leicester can still gate crash the party.

Their recent form under Nigel Pearson would suggest that is unlikely. Leicester have only won twice in their last 17 games. They are hardly in flying form, in terms of results.

But their performances have been better than their recent slide out of the top six might suggest.

They got a 1-1 draw at Brighton, were unlucky to draw 2-2 at home to Birmingham – when they played very well – beat Bolton 3-2, drew 2-2 at Palace and lost narrowly 2-1 at home to a quality Watford side.

The Foxes have played most of the big hitters in the division in the last few weeks and, while they have not picked up the wins they would have liked, nor have they been outclassed.

Far from it, in fact.

Forest must not underestimate the Foxes, even if it seems like they are the least likely of the contenders to sneak into the top six.

Nigel Pearson will not be allowing his players to view things that way.

And even if they do not make the top six themselves, they would enjoy nothing more than denying Forest their opportunity.

It is not intended as a criticism when I repeat my view that now would be the time for the Forest strikers to end their famine in front of goal.

That is obvious. It would be fantastic to see Simon Cox hammer home a hat-trick, because he deserves it following all the hard work and industry he has supplied over the last few months.

But that is not really what matters now. What will count is that, when those chances come Forest's way, they make the most of them.

Whether it is a defender, a midfielder or a striker, if Forest do carve out an opportunity, they have to make it count.

This is the time for the team to find their cutting edge and their ruthlessness.

At the end of the day, a 1-0 win with a goal scored off somebody's backside in the final minute may well prove to be enough to get them over the finishing line.

But, on a day where pressure, mental strength and confidence could be the decisive factor, if Forest can get an early goal, it could genuinely be a decisive moment in their season.

Hopefully, at sometime before 1pm on Saturday, news will filter through at the Reebok and at Selhurst Park that Forest are taking the first step towards a big win.

And at the same time, they can deal a hammer blow to Bolton's confidence and make Palace take an even more nervous look over their shoulders.

Over to you, Forest. Good luck.

Garry Birtles: Why scoring an early goal could propel Nottingham Forest into the play-offs


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