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There's one tradition Billy Davies must shake off to be promotion contenders

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EVEN Billy Davies himself has been known to jokingly refer to it as one of his 'traditions'. If ever there was a time to bring an end this particular habit, however, it is this coming August.

Historically, Davies sides do not start the season well. In fact, that is a kind way of putting it.

With Preston, Derby and Forest, the Scotsman has never managed to win more than one of the first five league matches of the season.

The last time the Reds kicked off a full season under his tenure, in 2010/11, the club won only two of their first 11 league games.

A year before that, Forest managed only one win in eight, as they made a stuttering start to the campaign.

Make no mistake, once Davies' teams get into their stride, they are a force to be reckoned with.

In fact, when they build momentum, they can be almost unstoppable. After that run of one win in eight, at the start of the 2009/10 campaign, Forest subsequently went through 19 games – and four months – without suffering a single defeat.

Unbeaten runs and steamroller momentum are also Davies' traditions.

And, in that case, the unbeaten run provided the platform for what was, until the final weeks of the campaign, a sustained push for automatic promotion, with Forest ultimately edged into third place.

But even in Scotland, when he was cutting his managerial teeth at Motherwell, Davies notched up one win in eight and then one in ten games as his side started the 1999/00 and 2000/01 seasons.

For whatever reason, his sides tend to be slow out of the blocks. It can take weeks for them to get into their stride.

Back in February, the return of Davies for a second spell at the City Ground had a galvanising effect.

Following a draw with Bolton, Davies inspired a run of six straight wins that transformed the course of a season that had threatened to unravel on the back of a short, disastrous spell under Alex McLeish.

Having looked as though their promotion aspirations had slipped away, Forest suddenly looked inspired; like a side capable of securing a top-six finish with ease.

Davies had returned to take care of his 'unfinished business' and, for a few weeks at least, Forest were on fire.

As it turned out, the Reds' hopes faded away on the back of just one win in eight games as the season petered out in frustrating fashion – and a home defeat at the hands of Leicester that ensured they, not Forest, went into the play-offs.

But the goal, when the new campaign kicks off in a few months time, will be exactly the same.

Davies will be looking to address that unfinished business of his, by steering the club into the top flight.

If the ambition is to do this via automatic promotion, rather than via the lottery of the play-offs, it will be no mean feat.

And, to achieve it, that unwanted tradition will have to change.

Eventual champions Cardiff began their charge into the top flight right from the off last August, winning nine of their first 13 games. Second-placed Hull took 13 points from their first six fixtures, before suffering a slight dip.

In 2011/12, Reading were the exception to the rule.

They won the title despite making a decidedly mediocre start to the campaign, when they won four, drew two and lost four of their first ten games.

But, to achieve this, they had to produce a truly incredible run of 15 wins from 17 – culminating in a home win over Forest that took them into the Premier League.

Second placed Southampton built their foundations early, winning their first four games and six of their first eight overall, to establish their credentials early on.

The 2010/11 season saw QPR have one hand on the title almost before the turn of the year, winning eight of their first ten games – and not tasting defeat at all until December.

Second-placed Norwich lost only two of their first ten fixtures, while collecting six wins.

It was a similar story the season before that, when eventual champions Newcastle dropped only seven points from their first ten games. Runners-up West Brom were unbeaten in their first eight games, winning six.

The theme was continued in 2008/09 when Wolves won seven of their first eight games and Birmingham lost just once in 13, winning nine.

So, in the last five seasons, only Reading have overcome a bad start to secure promotion.

Otherwise, nine out of the ten sides to have achieved Forest's goal of a place in the top-two have all had solid starts to the campaign.

Given their propensity for building extensive runs of form under Davies, nothing would be impossible if things do not begin well for the Reds.

But recent history would suggest that, if Forest do harbour aspirations of securing a place then this would, quite literally, be a good place to start.

Both Reading and Wigan will expect to challenge for an immediate return to the top flight, following their relegation.

QPR may be a club in disarray but, while they are top-heavy with over-paid under-achievers, they also have a core group of players who are more than capable of flourishing in the second tier under Harry Redknapp.

Brighton and Watford are heading into a summer of uncertainty, with Gus Poyet seemingly likely to leave the Seagulls and Gianfranco Zola needing to rebuild a squad that will be decimated by anticipated changes to loan regulations next season, which will ensure they are not allowed to borrow 15 players from other clubs again.

Leicester and Bolton will push again and Leeds and Ipswich will be strengthened by good managerial appointments, in Brian McDermott and Mick McCarthy respectively.

Even newly-promoted Bournemouth will have a considerable budget and could prove to be dark horses under the wily figure of Eddie Howe.

So there are at least ten sides who will harbour serious ambitions next season.

If Forest want to secure themselves a place among the contenders, then Davies' task this summer is to find a way to build another of his famous unbeaten runs – starting from the moment the new season kicks-off.

There's one tradition Billy Davies must shake off to be promotion contenders


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