Ukip has conceded the Newark by-election to the Conservatives.
A party source said they were estimating that Robert Jenrick, the Tory candidate would receive around 40 per cent of the vote while Roger Helmer is likely to get around 32 per cent.
The turnout was confirmed at 52.79 per cent at around 00.50 on Friday June 6.
But Ukip say the result is still a positive one.
In the last general election in 2010, Conservative Patrick Mercer had a 16,000 majority over Labour and 25,000 more votes than Ukip.
"It's nonsense to say the bubble has burst," said a Ukip source. "This was the 44th safest Conservative seat and it just shows that no MP with a 10,000 majority is safe.
"They've thrown the entire Tory machine here and they came because they were told to. Our lot came because they wanted to."
Ukip are also predicting a disastrous election for Liberal Democrat candidate David Watts.
"From what I've seen, they might not get their deposit back," said one Ukip teller.
"I feel sorry for them really."
Meanwhile, Labour candidate Michael Payne's election manager Chris Bryant said his party has suffered because people have turned to the Conservatives in fear of a Ukip win.
"The Tories have thrown the kitchen sink, the butler's sink, the pottery, the Aga, the crockery and all the pots at this election. Which shows how worried they are."
Mr Bryant conceded that his party was unlikely to win the election.
"I doubt we will win," he said. "But I've had a lot of positive feedback for our candidate Michael Payne. We know the real issue in Newark is the hospital.
"At one person's door, they told me they were staunch Labour voters but were gritting their teeth and voting Conservative just to keep Ukip out."
The results of the by-election are expected at around 3am.For all the latest from the Newark by-election count, click here to see our live blog.
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